Forget the Groundhogs…go straight to the “horse’s mouth” (or rather fur coat) for the most accurate prediction of spring’s arrival!
Should we trust Groundhog prognosticators to provide an accurate prediction of Spring’s arrival? The Michigan Abilities Center (MAC) at Heritage Hill Haven, a PATH, International Equine Assisted Therapy program that serves special needs in Ann Arbor, recommends getting an accurate prediction “straight from the horse’s mouth”…or rather their “fur coat”. Their resident expert, Birkey, a lovable Norwegian Fjord, has had 100% accuracy since she arrived at MAC the fall of 2008. If she is beginning to shed her thick fur coat by Groundhog’s Day, we will have an early spring in Michigan. MAC team members and riders know to give Birkey the “hug” test and if they end up covered in horse hair, we can count on an early spring. So why stand out in the cold watching for the groundhog’s shadow when you can come to MAC and find out by hugging a horse?
There is often no consensus between the Northern US and Canadian groundhog prognosticators and this year is no different. Of the 12 leading prognosticators nationwide, they are split 50:50 this year according to Wikipedia (scroll down for chart). The Punxsutawney officials state that their famous Phil is never wrong…so they blame his low prediction accuracy of less than 40% on human error in the translation and justify that his predictions are still is better than many weather forecasters. The National Climatic Data Center has analyzed the prognosticating powers of Punxsutawney Phil, and found “no predictive skill for the groundhog” compared to the national average temperature departures in February and March. In fact he is no more reliable than a coin toss! National Geographic has also gone on record doubting the predictive validity of the groundhog, because when the males come out in February they are not looking for their shadow. Rather, they are searching for the female groundhogs in preparation for mating season!So what does MAC’s Birkey predict this year? View Birkey’s prediction interview at MAC at Heritage Hill Haven’s Facebook . Birkey was not fooled by the warm temperatures in late January, and instead, she is holding onto her fur coat. Similar to last year, the MAC Team and riders have not seen her shed even a single hair prior to Groundhog’s day. She advises “hold onto your overcoat” as it will be a while yet until spring arrives in Michigan. Since a horse cannot readily take off and put back on their coat like a human can, they have an innate ability to know when to start shedding their coat. In contrast to this year, in 2012 and 2015 when spring arrived early, Birkey was shedding her her winter coat at least 10 days before Groundhog’s Day. Michigan’s Woody the Woodchuck (the state’s official groundhog in Howell), agrees with what Birkey has been predicting since January 10th…unfortunately no early spring this year. Birkey went on record with her prediction well in advance of all the groundhogs. So help us promote “Hug a Horse” and feel the warmth of our therapy horses, rather than shivering out in the cold watching a groundhog.While it does not look like we will have an early spring this year, it will not necessarily be 6 more weeks of winter. Birkey will let us know as spring gets closer by starting to shed her coat before it gets too warm. So come to MAC soon and give Birkey or one of our other awesome therapy horses a hug and see for yourself. While Birkey does not have power over Mother Nature, she, along with the other MAC horses who serve individuals with special needs, will warm your heart and make your day sunny, regardless of the weather!